The first half of the year comes to an end with US equity markets completing a solid recovery to reach new all-time highs after overcoming the correction registered during the month of April. The technology sector once again led the month with the Nasdaq advancing 6.57%, driven by dynamism in semiconductors, artificial intelligence and cloud services. In sector terms, the year-to-date leaders have been the industrial sector, with a return of 11.96%, followed by communication services (10.62%) and the financial sector (8.39%). In contrast, the energy (-0.94%), health (-2.01%) and consumer discretionary (-4.22%) sectors were among the laggards, being the only ones with negative returns in the semester.

On the fixed income side, the US treasury yield curve flattened further during June. Long-term rates, such as 10 and 30-year bonds, closed at levels of 4.24% and 4.78%, respectively, which represented drops of 17 and 14 basis points, while short-term rates also showed declines, with the 1-year bond standing out, which closed at 3.97%, down 15 basis points. This movement reflects a growing expectation of cuts in the reference rate towards the end of 2025, as a result of inflationary moderation and certain signs of economic deceleration. This environment favored fixed income instruments, particularly those of longer duration, such as the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond index, which registered a yield of 1.54% for the month and 4.02% for the year.

Turning to fiscal policy, the new budget package, known as the "Big Beautiful Bill," extends the personal tax cuts put in place in 2017 and, although the administration contemplates partially offsetting this impact through tariff revenue, Medicaid cuts and environmental tax credit reforms, Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates indicate that this initiative could increase the fiscal deficit by approximately $2.8 trillion over the next decade, pushing the public debt to exceed 120% of GDP by 2032.

Finally, at the local level, on June 25, 2025, the US Treasury Department, through the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), issued a formal indictment against CIBanco, Intercam and Vector Casa de Bolsa, for allegedly facilitating financial transactions linked to money laundering and the financing of fentanyl trafficking networks. As part of the sanctions imposed under Section 311 of the USA PATRIOT Act, as of July 21, all transactions between U.S. financial institutions and these Mexican entities will be prohibited. The market reaction was swift: rating agencies such as Fitch and S&P downgraded their credit ratings and several institutional clients began to withdraw resources or relocate trusts. Although this situation represents a significant reputational and operational risk for the Mexican financial sector, we do not consider that these institutions represent a systemic risk for the stability of the system as a whole. In this context, it is essential to avoid spreading unfounded rumors and to adhere only to information confirmed by authorities and official bodies.

Despite the seriousness of the case, the peso continued to strengthen against the dollar to close at 18.74 pesos per dollar, accumulating an appreciation of 10% so far this year. This trend responds mainly to a structural weakness of the U.S. dollar rather than to the Mexican peso's own strength.

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