January 2026 began with a market environment characterized by strong corporate reports, a still resilient economy, and more selective sector performance. The positive trend observed towards the end of 2025 continued, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs and the Nasdaq maintaining favorable performance. However, there were rotations towards cyclical sectors such as energy, materials, and industrials, suggesting a gradual broadening of the rally beyond the segments with the highest growth in recent years. This pattern points to a more balanced market that is less dependent on a single group of issuers, although there is still a high concentration in large-cap technology companies.

In fixed income markets, movements were contained; Treasury bond yields remained relatively stable, with slight downward adjustments in long-term maturities, in line with expectations that the upcoming rate cuts will materialize more gradually. Corporate credit performed well, particularly in the high-yield segment, against a backdrop of continued economic growth. This environment, coupled with inflation that continues to moderate gradually, prompted the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting, leaving open the possibility of future cuts.

Internationally, the financial environment was influenced by a marked weakness in the dollar amid questions about its role as the main reserve currency, as well as a reduction in US interest rate differentials compared to other developed economies. In this context, gold and silver began the year with solid performance as hedging assets, albeit with high volatility, accumulating returns of 11.22% and 14.74% respectively during the month, while digital assets continued to show sharp downward movements associated with speculative flows and changes in risk appetite. The Mexican Stock Exchange and the Brazilian market also stood out, recording significant gains in dollars of 7.84% and 15.03%, respectively. The environment described suggests that the trend observed during 2025 and early 2026 will continue to drive the revaluation of assets outside the United States.

Regarding corporate results, reports for the fourth quarter of 2025 reinforced the reading of a solid earnings environment in the United States, with growth so far of 8.2% in sales and 11.9% in profits. Among the Magnificent Seven, Meta and Apple stood out, while Tesla reported a mixed quarter and Microsoft fell 10% after failing to meet high market expectations. In addition, the big U.S. banks kicked off the reporting season with solid results and are facing the current economic environment from a position of strength. For 2026, we expect solid results with sales and profit growth of 7.5% and 14.5%, respectively.

Finally, the Investment Committee of Grupo Inversión agreed to implement the following adjustments to the portfolios during the month: gradually increase exposure to the European stock market, both in general and specifically in defense sector companies, while reducing exposure to the US market and the US dollar. These changes are part of a diversification strategy aimed at reducing concentration in both the US market and its currency.

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