The year 2025 was marked by a highly uncertain environment for investors. Trade tensions and the recurring threat of new tariffs generated episodes of volatility throughout the year. This was compounded by internal political disruptions in the United States, which led to the longest government shutdown in its history, delaying the publication of key economic information. At the same time, the Federal Reserve resumed its cycle of monetary easing after a prolonged pause. However, despite this complex context, economic activity showed remarkable resilience and stock markets managed to close the year near new historic highs.

In the United States, the economy experienced an orderly slowdown in 2025, avoiding the contraction scenarios that dominated concerns at the beginning of the year. Private consumption continued to be the main driver of growth, supported by a labor market that, although it lost some momentum, remained solid in historical terms. At the same time, inflation consolidated its downward trend—particularly in the metrics preferred by the Federal Reserve—which allowed for a shift toward a less restrictive monetary policy without compromising price stability.

The stock markets reflected this macroeconomic balance. The S&P 500 closed the year with double-digit returns, supported by solid corporate fundamentals and greater market breadth beyond the technology sector. While the Nasdaq once again led the way, driven by companies linked to artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and digitization, other sectors such as industrials and financials showed growing contributions, signaling a more balanced market cycle.

One of the most significant factors in 2025 was the strength of corporate earnings. S&P 500 companies posted robust earnings growth, accompanied by record profit margins. This combination of revenue growth, operational efficiency, and financial discipline allowed them to absorb an environment of still-high interest rates and sustain demanding valuations. Looking ahead, expectations continue to point to healthy earnings growth, reinforcing investor confidence in U.S. equities.

In fixed income, the year also ended on a positive note. Treasury bond yields trended downward in the second half of the year, particularly for longer maturities, as expectations of further cuts toward 2026 took hold. Corporate credit performed strongly, supported by robust balance sheets and low systemic risk perceptions, which contributed to appetite for this type of asset.

Internationally, financial markets closed the year with positive results, although performance varied between regions. A notable feature of the global environment was the depreciation of the US dollar during the first half of the year, which fell by nearly 10% against major currencies, reflecting uncertainty over trade policy and the transition in monetary policy. In this context, gold stood out as one of the strongest assets, reaffirming its role as an instrument of diversification and hedging in an environment of monetary normalization and persistent geopolitical risks. Digital assets, meanwhile, experienced a year of high volatility, with significant gains followed by sharp corrections, reflecting a market still dominated by liquidity and speculation factors.

In Mexico, the year was marked by stagnant economic activity. The most recent indicators point to marginal growth, with weakness in the industrial sector and a moderation in domestic momentum. In contrast, headline inflation fell to levels close to 3.6%, allowing the Bank of Mexico to begin a gradual cycle of monetary easing, accumulating cuts of 75 basis points during the year and maintaining a cautious tone in its minutes. The announcement of a 13% increase in the minimum wage by 2026 improves real household income, although it also introduces risks in terms of labor costs that could limit the recovery in the short term.

Overall, 2025 ended as a largely positive year for financial markets. Solid fundamentals, moderate economic growth, declining inflation, and historically high corporate profitability allowed risk assets to maintain constructive performance and major indices to remain close to historic highs. Looking ahead to 2026, the main focus will be on valuations in several segments of the US market, which are at historically high levels, making a disciplined, selective approach focused on the quality of fundamentals even more relevant.

At Grupo Inversión, we anticipate a favorable 2026 for risk assets, supported by reasonable economic growth in the United States and double-digit earnings growth for S&P 500 companies. This environment should be reinforced by an additional cycle of interest rate cuts by both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Mexico. In the foreign exchange arena, we do not anticipate significant structural pressures on the Mexican peso, beyond episodes of volatility associated with the USMCA renegotiation process. In this context, we maintain a constructive, albeit disciplined, outlook for the coming year.

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