February 2026 saw a significant change in the internal dynamics of the US stock market. Although the main indices remained close to recent highs, there was a rotation towards value sectors and smaller-cap companies, while the technology segment, particularly software, showed significant adjustments. This behavior points to a more selective market, with greater dispersion in returns and less concentration on previous leaders. In this context, an additional element that has begun to influence market sentiment is the uncertainty surrounding the structural implications of artificial intelligence on the economy. Doubts persist regarding its impact on employment, income distribution, and competitive dynamics between industries, which has contributed to episodes of volatility and greater divergence in valuations. Although this debate is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, from a medium- and long-term perspective, the adoption of these technologies has the potential to generate significant increases in productivity, historically a key driver of economic growth and value creation. Therefore, despite the current uncertainty, the structural balance remains constructive.

In macroeconomic terms, fourth quarter GDP growth was revised downward to 1.4%, affected in part by distortions in the trade balance and the impact of the partial government shutdown. However, when these factors are isolated, private domestic demand remains close to its long-term trend, in an estimated range between 2.5% and 3%, consistent with a scenario of economic expansion and far from the risk of recession in the short term.

In terms of inflation, the most recent data showed readings slightly above expectations, particularly in the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. However, the composition of inflation continues to show more favorable signs: components associated with housing continue to moderate, while some service items, such as healthcare, have shown greater resilience. Overall, the inflationary trajectory remains consistent with an environment that would allow the Federal Reserve to resume its cycle of rate cuts in the coming months.

On the political and trade front, the US Supreme Court limited the use of broad executive powers to impose tariffs, strengthening institutional certainty and reducing the risk of discretionary trade measures. This adjustment to the institutional framework has been particularly favorable for sectors most exposed to global trade, especially industrial and smaller-cap companies, which had been among the most affected by tariff uncertainty. Likewise, economies highly integrated with U.S. trade, such as Mexico and Canada, are among the main beneficiaries of a more visible trade policy environment.

In the geopolitical arena, tensions in the Middle East once again captured the attention of the markets. Towards the end of the month, the conflict intensified when, on February 28, Israel and the United States launched missile strikes against Iranian military installations, an operation that resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This event temporarily increased geopolitical uncertainty and caused volatility in energy markets. However, Grupo Inversión's baseline scenario envisages that the conflict will remain contained within the region, with a relatively limited duration and no sustained disruptions to global energy supplies. In this context, there is also a clear political incentive on the part of the Donald Trump administration to seek a quick resolution: such conflicts tend to have limited acceptance among the American public and, more importantly from an economic standpoint, a prolonged increase in oil prices could generate additional inflationary pressures and affect the economy's momentum, factors that could also directly harm the political interests of the administration itself ahead of the November elections in the United States. In any case, historically, episodes of geopolitical tension tend to generate short-term volatility in financial markets, although their impact is usually temporary when they do not lead to structural disruptions in trade or global energy supply.

In summary, February consolidated an environment of moderate growth, inflation in the process of convergence, and monetary policy with room for flexibility. The reduction of trade risks, together with a favorable outlook for corporate earnings, continues to support a positive outlook for risk assets in 2026, particularly outside the United States. In this context, Grupo Inversión's Investment Committee agreed to implement some adjustments to the portfolios during the month, increasing exposure to equities in emerging markets in Asia and Brazil, as well as to fixed income through Brazilian bonds, financed by a reduction in positions in US dollar-denominated assets, with the aim of strengthening portfolio diversification.

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