August reversed the trend seen in July and restored risk assets to the lead. Global stock markets rebounded strongly, buoyed by a historic quarter of corporate earnings reports (+33.8% growth in adjusted earnings and a record-high net margin) and results from the technology sector that dispelled doubts about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence investment cycle. The month also brought a clearer monetary policy message from Jackson Hole, where the new Federal Reserve chair outlined his monetary policy framework more clearly.

The rally was widespread across the major indexes. The Nasdaq led the way with a 3.93% gain for the month, bringing its year-to-date total to 13.46%, followed by the S&P 500 with a 2.62% increase and a year-to-date return of 12.28%, while the Dow Jones rose 1.34% in August and is up 10.66% in 2026. The tech rally was the driving force of the month: Nvidia’s earnings results contradicted the narrative of a slowing investment cycle in artificial intelligence, and Salesforce’s earnings reports, along with its partnership with Anthropic, helped reverse the bearish thesis that software would be displaced by artificial intelligence itself. Globally, the ACWI (All Country World Index) advanced 2.56% and is up 13.27% for the year, with emerging markets standing out among the best-performing regions, driven by South Korea, which leads with a return of nearly 70% for the year.

Turning to the fixed-income markets, the month saw stabilization following July’s correction. The U.S. aggregate index rose 0.39% and investment-grade credit rose 0.43%, although both remain slightly in the red for the year. High-yield bonds were the standout segment, rising 0.97% for the month and 2.69% year-to-date. As for yields, the 2-year Treasury note held steady around 4.34% and the 10-year Treasury note around 4.73%, with PCE inflation at 3.7% annually and second-quarter GDP growth confirmed at 1.5%. Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole outlined a framework that incorporates variables (such as the money supply and bank credit) that anticipate the economic conditions needed to combat inflation, while the message that carried the most weight for the markets was his assessment that the current stance is not particularly restrictive, leaving the door open for a rate hike in September and reaffirming the Fed’s goal of bringing inflation down to 2%.

Meanwhile, commodities and alternative assets saw a month of widespread recovery. Gold was the big winner, gaining 9.82% for the month, while Bitcoin posted the biggest rally, rising 25.37% and reducing its year-to-date loss to -10.03%. Oil stabilized with a moderate gain of 1.29% during the month, closing at $85.76 per barrel.

Finally, in the local market, the Mexican peso continued to strengthen, settling at around 17.00 pesos per dollar, with a year-to-date appreciation of 5.61%, supported by a strong trade balance and foreign direct investment inflows driven entirely by the reinvestment of profits by multinational companies, reflecting the commitment of established firms rather than the inflow of new capital. BANXICO is maintaining its benchmark rate at 6.50%, while the IPC index of the Mexican Stock Exchange fell 2.25% for the month, bringing its year-to-date gain down to 1.74%.

In summary, August ended on a positive note for risk assets. Going forward, the main focus will be on the trajectory of monetary policy under the Fed’s new leadership, in a context where inflation remains above target and the large deficit continues to put pressure on interest rates. In this environment, disciplined portfolio construction and an emphasis on the quality of fundamentals remain the most appropriate guiding principles.

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